Overview

Bitcoin continues to meander within a tight range and there is simply nothing to do here but wait for a setup or the market to swing higher or lower.

The Stock market is starting to show signs of weakness and we are going to look to step into a short position with the Q’s today.

Forex has been a mess as of late, but there is a couple setups we like here, specifically the Pound (GBPUSD).  We are looking to go long later today so look for a signal.

Bitcoin

BTCUSD

Bitcoin is still jerking around in the low to mid 10k range.  Patience is required to let the market reveal its hand, not guess what the market may or may not do.

During these periods, where the market is providing mixed signals, it is important to just step aside and let the market work it out.  Attempting to guess the next move is impulsive and sets a trader and or investor up for capital erosion.

We are already positioned, and there is nothing to do but wait for the market to play out.  As far as swing trades go, there is nothing on the chart that would have us take a long, and this is a risky area to short, if we shorted this market which we do not.

I am watching the 10k level to hold here, and a couple more days of consolidation above it.  The market is not falling apart here, so we remain in our long position.

ALTS

Alts

The alt market is pausing, but the initial structure is what we want to see for a potential swing higher.  Keep in mind there is still some room for the market to fake to the downside, forming a double bottom or higher low, so we just have to see how the next couple days play out.

Though we are seeing some bearish signals, the position is not conducive to a short.  It is conducive to a fake-out, and this is what we are looking for.  With a slightly better structure in play, we may see buyers step back in on any dip.

Again, we just need to be patient and let the market play out.  Nothing to do, and we are not adding here because there is still some risk to the downside.  Until the we have a clearly better structure we are not interested in alts here.

Stocks

S&P

The S&P is finally starting to show signs of a reversal here.  This is what we have been patiently waiting for and we are looking to start a short position with the Q’s today if the conditions are right.

Again we have been patiently waiting for the right time to short the market, not just any time.  The 2900 level is initial support, but we are looking for a broader correction into the low 2800-2750 area.

Many of the overweighted stocks in the S&P like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and MSFT are not trading near their highs, with the exception of MSFT.  With lower highs in place, any bad news is going to quickly weed out weak hands that bought this rally.

We are looking to take advantage of this scenario, and with the FED on deck next week, most if not all of the good news is already priced in, implying the stadium is full and the exits will fill up quickly.

QQQ

NASDAQ

We will be looking to sell a slightly ITM Call on the Q’s or short the instrument outright with a starter position today.  Looking for an initial pullback into the low 180’s but in the broader term (a month or so) a pullback into the 170’s and potentially the 160’s where we will look to go long.

With earnings out of the way, a Fed rate cut already priced in, and the market rallying on talks of a trade deal, the good news is already priced in.  This makes the pain trade to the longs.  We want to position opposite of the pain trade.

Look for an email this afternoon, if and when we decide to enter a position.  Our Sell Limit 192.25 order last Friday was never filled, and any move into the 192’s today would be an area to short.

However we want to see how the market opens, and furthermore how it reacts around lunch time.

British Pound

GBPUSD

The Pound is setting up for a continuation higher off a double bottom followed up with a higher high.  We have been patient with Forex as it has been an extremely volatile market, full of noise, but we are starting to see a few trade setups we like.

Look for a signal closer to the end of day for a long Pound trade.

Summary

There are numerous stocks on our watch list, but as we mentioned on the show yesterday, if the market pulls back, they are likely to pullback as well.  We will be looking to buy good stocks that are pulled under by the ETF’s which dominate the space now.

This is where being a stock picker comes into play and stocks on our watch list like CAT, CVS, QCOM and BMY for dividend investors, as well as ROKU, SPOT, NVDA, CRM and MRVL for growth investors.  We have a list we are looking at, and will start updating with some fundamentals later this week.

 

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