Overview:

The purpose of this article is to provide some insight into potential upcoming trades and portfolio management across several markets.

One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These are the two most expensive eights in the world.  – Jesse Livermore

Cryptos:

Pessimism grows as the Bitcoin and the alts continue to grind higher.  This is generally a sign the bull market is just beginning.  Time to add or does the Reward Risk factor favor waiting?

Stocks:

NFP still shows signs the economy is chugging along in the US.  The market is pushing near its previous ATH, which is an area of resistance.  This is an area with a high probability for a reversal.  Keep in mind the lower low back in January means something and this cannot be discarded.

Keep in mind the news came out Friday and it was good, and the market really did not react.  Usually this means the market has run out of buyers, and the news was already priced in.  We saw this with the Euro as well.

Forex:

Likewise the news on NFP did not affect the Euro much, even though the dollar index popped a little on Friday. Again this is generally a sign that all the bad news is priced in already and the risk is being long here.  With this type of price action we are looking at a broader position trade with the Euro.

Comodities:

Gold is at a critical point and is setting up for a move lower.  We still are looking at levels to go long, but with gold being in a tough position we are not going to be looking at any trades this week.   Oil continues to push highs with a strong structure in place as it approaches a critical resistance area.  Again this is smack in the middle of the trading range and the market can move either way.

News Events:

There are a couple events this week that have the potential to move markets.  The ECB on Wednesday releases it rate decision and Draghi speaks shortly after. Most likely a nothing burger unless they decide to lower rates.  We also get a slew of economic data globally which should provide some insight into the global economy.  A huge week for economists, traders, not so much unless we see an extreme surprise.

 

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