SC Weekly – A Missed Opportunity is Not a Loss

Overview:

The purpose of this article is to provide some insight into potential upcoming trades and portfolio management across several markets.  As you know I love to use quotes from great traders, and what more fitting this week than one of the greats.  This should really be a quote sitting above your computer along with JPM’s “I made a fortune getting out too soon”.

 “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.” – Jesse Livermore

Cryptos:

This market is like a visit to the dentist office for a filling.  Just painfully slow and without direction.  We did close out a couple position trades, locking in some profits, but is this all she wrote?  Cryptos needs a catalyst to really start moving higher and we just do not have it yet.  We just need a news event to give it a push over the edge.

Stocks:

Finally some relief from the rally, and with the global economies showing signs of slowing, and NFP were worse than expected, is this a sign of a broader selloff?  Well the ole saying is, its not a bull trap until after the fact, and we are looking for some further weakness, but expect a bounce first.  This is where we can start to look for some value and option plays.

Forex:

With NFP and the ECB behind us the dollar continues to show strength which again is a double edge sword.  Good for US consumers, bad for US companies selling abroad.  So is there room for the dollar to continue higher?  We think so, but seldom does anything go straight up and there are a couple more risky counter trend trades we are looking at.

Commodities:

Gold is finally pushing back to 1300 after having the rug pulled out.  Oil is also looking to setup for a long as well.  Even with the slow down in growth “allegedly”, oil is looking to break out long. 

News Events: 

Other than US retail sales, and a half dozen or so, after NFP reports, there is nothing really on deck this week on the economic calendar.  With earnings behind us, NFP and both the FOMC and ECB meetings out of the way, we get a break from anything significant.   After the retail number last month, that seem to be skewed, it will be interesting to see if the number is revised and or if retail is still strong.

 

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7 Responses
  1. jlhequities

    This will be a wychoff spring for the Euro under 1.12/1.10, then bull cycle will resume by May most likely. Buy orders are in. USD tops and reverses in next 30-60 days. Hopefully crypto will follow the Euro like 2017

    1. Andrew Gonci

      I am still long the dollar until it proves otherwise. But most of the pairs have taken a beating to the USD so there may be some bounce here, I would just caution against counter trend trade. Reduce position size keep stops tight. Thanks JL!

    1. Andrew Gonci

      We already added them to our portfolio, but they are on the radar for those that have not. I may add more BAT on a pullback, but I have plenty of XLM so I will just hold.

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