SC Weekly – The Most Important Non-Farms Payroll Report Yet

Overview:

The purpose of this article is to provide some insight into potential upcoming trades and portfolio management across several markets. 

Cryptos:

Cryptos continue to consolidate as the market searches for direction.  There is nothing to do here but wait for the market to act.  There are simply no trade setups and we have already added a couple positions in our portfolio.  Trading here exposes capital without a clear direction, and adding so near where we previously have is unwarranted at this time.  Yet there are numerous coins on our radar both from a swing and a position trade.

Stocks:

The stock market has been relentless, and even Jim Cramer mentioned the other day that this is the most remarkable he has ever seen.  Yet nothing goes straight up forever, and we are starting to see some signs of weakening, but this does not preclude the rally is over.  However all eyes will be focused on the NFP this week, which has become a double edged sword.

Forex:

Nothing is going to be more important this week in Forex than the NFP.  If we take a trade tonight or early in the week we will be looking to exit before the NFP release on Friday.  It is going to be a whip saw market and the move in gold on Friday may be a prelude to what is to come.

Commodities:

Gold and silver both had the rug pulled from under them Friday, and we are looking for support around 1275 & 15.0 respectfully.  Oil is also showing some signs of a bearish reversal here and we are looking for a short position in oil, and gold and silver to build some structure.

News Events: 

There are two major events that traders should place on their calendar.  Thursday the ECB releases their rate decision and Mario Draghi speaks shortly after in Frankfurt.  Yet the most important number comes out on Friday with the US NFP report, which at this time appears to be a double edged sword for longs, and is likely the most important NFP in years.

Some minor events to look at are the Aussie GDP and CAD bank rate decision on Wednesday.  These are not NFP, FOMC or ECB meeting type events, but if you are in an Aussie or Canadian trade it is something to be aware of.

 

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