Bitcoin Cash has now split into two separate chains BCHABC (Almost Became Credible) BCHSV (Bitcoin Stagnate & Valueless). What a disaster after a nice run up on the news, and why we recommended you shave off some profits into the rally.
Fortunately we had shaved some off back in October along with Ethereum and completely closed out OMG and NEO. In the event the market fell apart we felt these would perform worse than Bitcoin.
Now that the 30 day Wash Rule has passed, we can not only buy them back cheaper, but claim them as a loss on our taxes as well. Hey the market hands you lemons you make lemonade. Even if it is just a small glass. Guess who we have to thank?
Well my nomination for Ass of the Year is Craig Wright who played in, “The Grinch that stole Christmas”. His threats to destroy Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin Jesus has made him the biggest jerk in cryptos. Move over Steve Martin and give the role to Craig. He deserves the trophy and all the attention he can get, or maybe he already got it. Let’s take a look.
The pain is real for Bitcoin Cash (ABC version) as it lost nearly 50% of its value in a couple trading days. So good for the fork providing extra value for holders. In fairness had we known this upfront we would have closed out our BCH position in its entirety. We had an inclination, but you never know for sure and anyone that says they did is either a fortune teller or a liar. I never met a fortune teller that could pick lottery numbers.
Since we did not know how the market would react, we mentioned numerous times, take some off the top into the rally. This does not imply sell out and run for the hills, but lock in a little profit. Even if you took off 10-20% that is better than nothing. If you were lucky to shave 1-2 coins off around $600 heck you more than doubled your inventory if you buy back now. But not so fast.
It is still in the early consolidation phase, with 235 the minor level to watch over the next 36 hours. Other than that there is no lower support area, and because of this, we are putting BCH in the penalty box until we see some structural improvements. You know like XRP is showing. I mean if you believe this charade of immaturity has destroyed BCH at this point, maybe its time to cut your losses and run. Personally I still like BCH (the Roger Ver version), I just do not like how it all played out.
The market as whole looks pretty rough. With Bitcoin only showing 2 legs down, we have to be aware of one more bearish swing.
Bitcoin is doing it’s best to consolidate and reverse the bearish momentum, but the consolidation is in an difficult area to pick one way or the other. There are two clear waves down. The structure is such that we could see another swing lower, pushing through the 3970 area, and as low as 3100. I know I never thought we would see these levels again, and we may not, but they are definitely in play now.
Bitcoin is simply in no-man’s land. There is a minor support level at 4250; which a consolidation above may provide a rally back to the 4750 area; but until 5200 is taken out, the market is not tradeable. This is simply to deep and we should not be here, but it is not what we think, it is how the market reacts, and in the end that is all that matters. The other concern is we did not get a pop, this was a continuation move from the 5600 area which is why we cancelled our orders at lower levels. Something is wrong here and we just do not know what it is. There was not even a re-test of the broader trend line. I’ll be frankly honest this is not good.
The good news:
However we are not going to just focus on the negative, there are a few bright signs. Normally I do not talk much about volume, but it is relevant here. The second leg down, was the highest sell volume spike since the initial selloff last Dec 17th. This deep into a consolidating market, when investors and traders become simply discouraged, larger operators push out the final weak hands, selling into low volume. This was almost step by step, right out of Wyckoff’s 1937 book where he explained exactly how large operators (whales) do this.
So do we get another leg down completing the flushing, or was this enough to flush out the last of the weak hands? We would simply be speculating, so we will just step aside and see what the market does from here. In actuality I would love another attempt to buy at 3100, so I welcome another leg down. But it is not how I feel, it is how Satoshi himself feels. Let’s take a look at how the Grinch is doing right now.
Unlike BCH (ABC), we do have two extensions to go by. The first is found at 21.00 and the second at -90.00. Thank God for zero, or SV could take out -90.00 sooner than later. On the bright side Craig was voted runner up in the BCH wars; the downside? It was a two horse race so he still came in last. The market has spoken regardless of all the threats, idiotic tweets, and acting like a 10 year old taking his football and going home.
As much as he tweets the Grinch is not the winner here. In fact he is the biggest loser, and I thought of many labels for him, Bitcoin Judas, Benicoin Arnold, but then the commercial came on for the new Grinch Movie, and in the Holiday spirit, the Grinch just seemed applicable. Not only has he lost the respect of the community, but most of the main players in the space as well. What about Roger? I want to say Roger stepped up and knocked it out of the park, but that did not happen either.
He could have taken the high road and said, “my friend Dr Craig and myself disagree on the path for BCH, are splitting, and we will let the market decide.” Just taken the high road and let Craig go out there and make an ass of himself, which he did. In the end Roger should have just let Craig become the most hated man in cryptos without reading the love notes he received from Camp Grinch.
Regardless the market has spoken, and BCH(ABC) appears to be the winner, but we are not out of the woods yet. There is still the potential for BCH (ABC) to fall into the Abyss of crap coins following the lead of Craig who is driving his Grinch Sleigh Vehicle (SV) straight to zero. Well there is still that -90 support level, who knows zero might just be a speed bump along the way, after all he did create Bitcoin. Impossible Wright?.
Thanks Giving Dinner:
So all this drama has put a bad taste in everyone’s mouth for Thanks Giving. Like your sister in law’s Tufu-turkey that she raves about, but tastes like cardboard and turnip gravy. Yeah pass me the meat and potatoes please. Bitcoin is just that. The meat and potatoes of the space. Regardless of all the hash Craig is smoking, I mean removing from mining Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, in the end he is just looking the fool.
Bitcoin Cash is now Bitcoin Crash. It not only put a damper on the entire market, but has given XRP & XLM a foot up in the long term. Of course Craig Wright stomping his fork at the table, like a brat wanting more pudding, provided an opportunity for large operators to raid the market. I believe he personally sold about as much Bitcoin as I did, none!
This is likely just a shake out of any remaining weak hands, and the weak coins as well. It has been a boring market, but with the soap opera of Bitcoin Crash, we received a little entertainment. Regardless until we see some structure, or a final flush to 3100, we are simply standing aside.
We appreciate all the feedback from our recent survey and there was much demand for a webinar. Marc and I are putting together our premiere webinar on finding trends, scheduled currently for Sunday evening. It will be live for our premium and expert swing members to ask questions, and will be available on demand for all our free ones after. Also look out for our special deal this weekend for SC Cyber Monday. Yeah I know you can’t wait, forget the Smart TV HD with 4k on sale for $99, and standing in line for Xbox980! Do you really need those $4 Egyptian cotton towels, again?
So with the upcoming Webinar on finding trends, and my favorite shopping day of the year, get some rest! Enjoy your family a few brews, and the Holiday weekend. Don’t forget about the football game! So time for me to get back to smoking Turkeys. They say don’t name your turkey before you smoke it buy I named mine, smoking Craig!
Those living in the US have a blessed Thanks Giving!