USD is overbought but still bullish
When I’m trading BTC against the USD or USDT I look at the USDCHF for any signs of correlation to gauge where the USD strength may start to weaken. It helps me to evaluate what pairs I should concentrate on pitting the weak against the strong.
The weekly and monthly USDCHF charts paints the picture. Price is at April 17 and Oct & November orderflow levels of resistance. Maybe price is retesting here. Price has moved 700 pips with very little retracement during this year. If price breaks under 0.9900 I’m bearish to 0.9750. Above 9990 I’m Bullish to 1.0180.
Even though the USD is displaying extremely bullish price action it is at a level where the move could terminate.
It’s at weekly resistance and also a long term upward sloping trendline and downward sloping trendline from 2015. There is a fibonacci time cycle coming up indicated by the blue line and the number 2 this is where I expect the USD to change trend.
I’m not calling this the top.
Price action determines the top and bottom of any move such as what we’ve seen for the past few weeks on this pair.
I have drawn a resistance lines in to see where the USD may turn around. I’m not ready to short this pair as it may keep going.
If price on the daily chart makes a lower low after a failed high then I will watch my 4hr chart to take a trade short. I’m watching for this pattern only after the daily chart has paused at the level that I’m watching. Then price may hit the next support level and return to the overall trend. This trade is high risk as it’s against the trend.
What I am watching for is to buy other currencies agains the USD such as EUR, GBP and AUS not buy the Swiss Franc.
Bitcoin may be affected by a weakening USD as people start to look for alternatives that hold value.